Price Return Last Week
S&P 500 +0.9% S&P Mid Cap +4.3% Russell 2000 +6.0%
MSCI EAFE +2.3% MSCI EM +1.7%
10 Yr US Treasury Rate – fell from 4.27% to 4.19%
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Recent News
Core CPI – June: 0.1% (Reuters Poll est. 0.2%) May: 0.2%
This release represents the lowest month-over-month change since August 2021. When annualized, the rate of change would be just 0.8%. A reduction in shelter costs played a big role in the lower-than-expected value. Shelter costs increased just 0.2% versus the previous month, also the lowest rate of growth since August 2021. Furthermore, lodging away from home costs were down 2% versus the previous month. Odds of a rate cut in September became a near certainty after the report.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jason Furman
Powell Testimony – Prior to the lower-than-expected CPI data being released last week, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, told the Senate Banking Committee that the U.S. is “no longer an overheated economy,” and that the “labor market appears to be fully back in balance.” In a sign that the Fed is getting closer to lowering interest rates, he added that leaving rates too high could “unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
Source: Thomson Reuters
Equal-Weight Index Outperforms – The equal-weight S&P 500 index outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 2% on Thursday. The third-largest outperformance on record relative to the S&P 500.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Small Caps Outperform – The iShares Russell 2000 ETF beat the SPDR S&P 500 ETF by over 5% last week. The third largest weekly outperformance from small cap stocks over the last ten years.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Prime Day – Amazon’s Prime Day takes place on July 16 and 17. Sales on Prime Day in 2023 brought in nearly $13 billion and set a record for the most single day sales ever for Amazon. The retail event was launched in 2015 to celebrate the company’s 20th anniversary and was strategically placed in July as the summer tends to be a slower period for retailers.
Source: NBC Select
Upcoming Events
7/15 – GOP Convention, Powell Interview at Economic Club
7/16 – Retail Sales, Notable Earnings Reports: Bank of America, Progressive, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Charles Schwab, State Street, UnitedHealth Group
7/17 – Notable Earnings Reports: US Bancorp, Johnson & Johnson, Northern Trust, Discover Financial
7/18 – ECB Meeting, Notable Earnings Reports: Abbott Laboratories, Blackstone, Netflix
7/19 – Notable Earnings Reports: Schlumberger, American Express, Halliburton
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
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