Price Return Last Week
S&P 500 (2.0%) S&P Mid Cap (4.7%) Russell 2000 (4.5%)
MSCI EAFE (3.6%) MSCI EM (3.6%)
10 Yr US Treasury Rate – rose from 4.40% to 4.52%
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
Recent News
Fed Cuts Rates – As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. Comments from Fed President, Jerome Powell, after the decision caused market anxiety with stocks falling nearly 3% for the day. Powell noted that from here on we are in a “new phase”, and they were “going to be cautious about further cuts.” New projections were released that upped the estimated core PCE inflation for 2025 to 2.5% from 2.2%. The range of estimates also widened significantly from 0.4% to 1.1% highlighting the greater uncertainty in the forecast.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters, The Federal Open Market Committee
Core PCE – Nov: 0.1% (Reuters Poll Est. 0.2%) Oct: 0.3%
In contrast to the Fed’s projection for rising core inflation in 2025 just two days prior, the November report showed lower than expected core inflation. Core prices rose just 0.1% in November, for the lowest increase in six months. Following the release, odds that the Fed makes no change to rates in January were above 90%.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Barron’s
Retail Sales – Nov: 0.7% (Reuters Poll Est. 0.5%) Oct: 0.4%
Headline retail sales beat expectations driven by strong spending on motor vehicles. However, core retail sales excluding automobiles rose just 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations for a 0.4% rise. All-in-all, the latest numbers point to a still strong US consumer. After the release, the Atlanta Fed updated its Q4 GDP estimate to an annual pace of 3.3%.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Thomson Reuters
Argentina Emerges from Recession – For the first time since late 2023, Argentina’s economy grew, expanding at a rate of 3.9% compared to the previous quarter. Some have credited new president Javier Milei’s efforts to cut spending and regulations throughout the country. While the poverty rate grew 11 points in the first half of the year, inflation has fallen from an annual rate of over 300% to less than 30%.
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, The Financial Times
It Ain’t Me Babe – Timothée Chalomet stars as Bob Dylan in the new movie, “A Complete Unknown.” The movie, set to be released in theaters on Christmas Day, adds to the twenty-plus Dylan movies already out but focuses on Dylan’s time in New York from 1961-1965. Despite numerous attempts to showcase Dylan on the big screen, many critics believe the first ever attempt, “Don’t Look Back” by D.A. Pennebaker remains the best. Dylan claimed he didn’t like “Don’t Look Back,” because he didn’t get paid for doing it but has struck a different chord with “A Complete Unknown,” promoting it on social media and praising “Timmy” Chalomet as a brilliant actor.
Source: Pitchfork.com, Rolling Stone, @BobDylan
Upcoming Events
12/23 – Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence
12/25 – Christmas
Source: Refinitiv Eikon
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